Going 'long' is becoming an overcrowded trade on Dalal Street, and any negative trigger could lead to a sharp correction, warn experts. However, given the strong momentum, particularly in IT stocks, the downside could be protected in the immediate term. "With the Nifty50 surging to new life-time highs, the bulls remain in control. Further upsides are likely once the immediate resistance of 21,492 is taken out.
More than half a dozen companies will hit the market with their initial public offerings (IPOs) between now and the end of next week. The cumulative amount raised from these IPOs is expected to be around Rs 8,000 crore. Stationery products firm DOMS Industries and home financier India Shelter Finance's IPOs - of Rs 1,200 crore each - got off to a flying start on Wednesday (December 13), with the former garnering over six times the subscription and the latter getting 1.5 times subscribed.
Fundraising through qualified institutional placement (QIP) has revived this year, led by commercial banks, after a lacklustre 2022. According to data compiled by Prime Database, Indian companies have raised Rs 53,070 crore in 2023 so far, of which seven banks - Union Bank of India, Indian Bank, Bank of India, Federal Bank, IDFC First Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, and J&K Bank - account for Rs 21,290 crore, or about 40 per cent. If other financial institutions are included, the figure surges to Rs 26,690 crore.
Social stock exchange (SSE) saw its first listing on Wednesday, with SGBS Unnati Foundation becoming the first entity to take this route to avail financing. The foundation - engaged in vocational training of youth - raised Rs 1.8 crore from four investors. These include brokerage firm Zerodha and National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (Nabard).
Global private equity (PE) firms are successfully offloading large equity stakes in domestic companies in the open market, taking advantage of buoyant conditions. Strong domestic liquidity support and an upward trending market have underpinned over a dozen PE exits worth $2.5 billion, data compiled by Business Standard shows. The figures exclude PE exits during maiden share sales and shares sold by strategic investors, such as SoftBank and Ant Group in new-age companies.
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India is going to indefinitely defer the internal deadline set for extending trading hours, according to sources in the know. The exchange aimed to introduce a three-hour evening session exclusively for index derivatives by March 2024, contingent upon regulatory clearance from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). Sources indicate that the market regulator has not provided a favourable indication, dimming optimism surrounding the proposal.
The market capitalisation of Adani Group companies rose by nearly Rs 73,000 crore on Monday as investors lapped up shares of the power-to-port conglomerate after BJP's electoral wins in three states, spurring hopes of regime continuity at the Centre. The Gautam Adani group's market map once again neared the Rs 12-trillion mark, following sharp gains made over the past week. "Two big overhangs for the Adani Group have receded somewhat following the state election results, there is more certainty that the BJP will win a third time next year.
The domestic equity markets are expected to extend gains following the strong showing of the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state elections - a crucial precursor to the general elections in May. The BJP decisively secured victories in three of the four key states - Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh. While the battles in these three states were closely contested, the scale of the BJP's triumph has surprised many, heightening expectations for regime continuity in 2024 - a positive catalyst for the markets.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) may allow non-resident Indians (NRIs) and Overseas Citizens of India (OCIs) greater exposure to domestic equities if their investments are sent through foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) registered at the GIFT City International Financial Services Centre (IFSC). The proposal will be taken during Sebi's board meeting on Saturday along with other key agenda items such as easing of voluntary delisting mechanism and introduction of a regulatory framework for real estate fractional ownership platforms, said people in the know. At present, the combined holdings of NRIs and OCIs in a global fund have to be less than 50 per cent, while that of a single NRI or OCI is capped at 25 per cent.
The contribution from asset management companies (AMCs) has surpassed the Rs 3,000 crore target for the creation of a Rs 33,000 crore backstop facility for debt mutual funds (MFs). The initial corpus for the Corporate Debt Market Development Fund (CDMDF) is nearly Rs 3,100 crore, according to multiple government officials and AMC executives. "The fund is operational now. "The required corpus has been raised by AMCs and the remaining part (Rs 30,000 crore) is in the form of a guarantee from the government which will be activated only in case of a credit event," explained D P Singh, joint CEO and deputy MD, SBI MF.
India Inc's net profit as a percentage of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) is just shy of reaching 5 per cent, bolstered by strong earnings growth in the second quarter of 2023-24. Analysts interpret this as an indication that a corporate profit upcycle is in progress, with projections suggesting that this share could exceed 8 per cent within the next five years, driven by bullish earnings growth expectations. "We believe we are only halfway through a profit cycle, with the profit share in GDP rising from a low of 2 per cent in 2020 to about 5 per cent currently, and likely heading to 8 per cent in the coming four to five years. "This implies about 20 per cent compounding of earnings growth. "Underscoring this forecast is the start of a new private capex cycle, under-geared balance sheets, a healthy banking system, lower corporate tax rates, improving terms of trade, and structural consumption demand outlook albeit somewhat offset by likely consolidation in government deficit," said Ridham Desai, managing director, head of research, Morgan Stanley India in a note.
Equity markets rallied after softer-than-expected inflation data in the US and UK rekindled hopes of the end of the rate-hiking cycle by major central banks. The soft inflation reading drove down bond yields and the US dollar, whetting the appetite for risky assets. The 10-year US bond yield fell below 4.5 per cent after topping 5 per cent less than a month ago.
Diwali fireworks are expected to continue on Dalal Street next week, with four companies collectively seeking to mobilise over Rs 6,600 crore through initial public offerings (IPOs). In terms of the amount raised, this is poised to be the busiest week of calendar year 2023. Tata Technologies (Tata Tech), a subsidiary of Tata Motors, could lead the charge with an IPO projected to be over Rs 2,900 crore. This will mark the first maiden share sale by a Tata Group firm in nearly two decades.
'...similar to the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2012 taper tantrum, or the 2018 midcap crash.' 'This could lead to a substantial decline in activity and revenues for the broking industry.' 'When this will happen is uncertain, but as brokers, we must be prepared for such a downturn.'
Domestic investors are tightening their grip on the ownership of listed companies. The gap between the shareholding of domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) narrowed to 13.11 percentage points at the end of the September 2023 quarter. At the peak, the gap was nearly 50 percentage points in March 2015, according to an analysis by Prime Database, a leading provider of data on the capital market.
In the current calendar year, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have witnessed an impressive surge in initial public offerings (IPOs), surpassing the 2018 record. Over 150 SME IPOs have been introduced to the market, breaking the previous record of 141 set in 2018. According to data from PRIME Database, a primary market tracking firm, 147 companies successfully concluded their debut share sales by the end of October, raising a cumulative Rs 3,727 crore.
Alternative investment funds (AIFs) are yet to fully demat the outstanding units even as the deadline ended on October 31. Industry players say they are working on the transition from physical to electronic with the depositories Central Depository Services (India) Limited (CDSL) and National Securities Depository Limited (NDSL). Some said they are hoping for some relaxation from the market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), given the teething problems they are facing.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn Rs 25,305 crore from domestic markets since September. FPIs were net sellers in the first two months of 2023, but from March to August, they purchased equities worth Rs 1.7 trillion. This selling trend has caused the National Stock Exchange Nifty Index to decline by 3.2 per cent from its September highs. FPI selling initially began in September as profit-taking but intensified due to rising US bond yields and uncertainty regarding the rate hike trajectory.
Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) filing continued to be robust in October, signifying the optimism in the initial public offer (IPO) market despite the recent turbulence in equities. In October, 17 companies filed their offer documents for IPOs. The rush in filings has made August-October 2023 the best three-month period for DRHP filings since July-September 2021.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on Wednesday barred financial influencer Mohammad Nasiruddin Ansari, operating with the handle 'Baap of Chart' and known as Md Nasir on social media, from accessing the securities market. Further, the market regulator has asked him to disgorge Rs 17.2 crore for indulging in unregistered investment advisory. 'Baap of Chart' has over 443,000 subscribers on YouTube and 83,000 followers on X (formerly Twitter) and has provided trading recommendations and courses.
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